Story two
Take two entrepreneurs in one country, sector and regulatory regime. One takes the venture abroad and the other never leaves home. Country-level explanations cannot tell you which will do which.
Background: 40,529 observations across 41 countries, one band per country. Each band spreads far wider than the gaps between them. The image is illustrative and does not plot the data.
National culture does not push every entrepreneur in one direction. It has a strong effect on self-efficacy and on how people see opportunities, and a weak, inconsistent effect on fear of failure. Because culture works through some beliefs more than others, entrepreneurs within a country differ far more than countries differ from each other.
News and reports from journalists, regulators and research bodies. None of it is my own work. I include it because it shows these questions in practice, and I check each item against the original source.
Across 53 economies, fear of failure deters two in five adults, yet individuals who have previously exited a business are more likely to start again.
This independently replicates the post-exit pattern in my research. Exiting a business works as a mastery experience as well as a setback.
A UBS survey finds 63 percent of US founders planning exits, against 38 percent in Europe and 18 percent in Asia-Pacific.
Gaps this large tempt a cultural explanation, but the survey cannot separate culture from tax rules, market depth or demographics. The cause still has to be identified.
On GEM 2025/2026 data the United States ranks fourth, behind Canada, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia.
A country's reputation for enterprise and its measured attitudes have drifted apart. You would expect this if culture affects some beliefs and leaves others alone.
Across more than 2,000 SMEs in twelve countries, adoption of off-the-shelf AI tools is accelerating while strategic integration remains inconsistent.
Firms are adopting AI tools faster than they build them into strategy. You would expect this if using a technology makes firms deliberate more before they have the capacity to act.
How it works
Peer-reviewed and accepted papers only. Papers still under review are described at the end but not listed, because they have not yet passed review.
Two further manuscripts, on post-exit cognition and on information environments, are under review. I will add details when they are published.
Export promotion designed around a single national profile tends to miss. A programme aimed at fear of failure does little where fear of failure is not what holds people back.
The model is established for export intensity. My next test is whether the pattern also shapes how ventures choose to enter foreign markets, using roughly 25,200 digital ventures. The post-exit finding is observational. Entrepreneurs who exit and start again may differ from those who stop in ways no survey records.
